Hao Zhou
Chair Professor
Hao Zhou is the Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance (2013-) and Senior Associate Dean for Faculty and Research (2015-2021) at PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University. He is also the Chair Professor of Finance (2021-) and Dean (2021- 2022) at SUSTech College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology. Hao served on the Tsinghua University Academic Committee and Tenure & Promotion Committee. From 2000 to 2013, he had been an economist and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Board. Hao received a PhD degree in economics from Duke University in 2000 and a BA degree in economics from Peking University in 1989.
His past professional services include a senior visiting fellow at MIT Golub Center for Finance and Policy, Chair of the Committee for Economics, Finance, and Management at Thousands Talent Program, General Secretary of the Review Committee of Sun Yefang Financial Innovation Award, General Secretary for China Forum of Macroeconomic Research, and visiting professors to MIT Sloan School of Management and CCER of Peking University. He currently serves as a senior fellow of Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER) and at China Mentor Group of Cornell S.C. Johnson College of Business.
Hao’s research agenda covers the areas of variance risk premiums on stock, bond, currency, and credit markets, systemic risk and macro-prudential regulation of financial institutions, stochastic volatility and jump risks on asset markets, and China financial markets reform and development. He has published in leading academic journals like Journal Monetary Economics, Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Financial Economics, among others. Hao has written a survey paper on “Variance Risk Premia, Asset Return Predictability, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty” for the Annual Review of Financial Economics in 2018.
Chair Professor of Finance (2021-) and Dean (2021-2022), SUSTech College of Business, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech)
Academic Committee Member at SUSTech College of Business
Executive Education Committee Member at SUSTech College of Business
Inaugural Director, Science-Technology Management Scholar (DBA) Program
Unigroup Chair Professor of Finance (2013-) and Senior Associate Dean for Faculty and Research (2015-2021), PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University
Vice President, National Institute of Financial Research
Director, Research Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Director, Research Center for New Structural Financial Economics
Academic Committee Chair at Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance
Tsinghua University Academic Committee Member
Tsinghua University Tenure and Promotion Committee Member
2000-2013 Economist and Senior Economist Risk Analysis Section Federal Reserve Board
1999-2000 Lecture Department of Economics Duke University
1993-1994 Consultant Development Research Center of State Council China
1989-1990 Administrator Nandan County of Guanxi Province China
Working Paper
Refereed Journal
“The Drivers and Implications of Retail Margin Trading,” with Jiangze Bian, Zhi Da, Zhiguo He, Dong Lou, and Kelly Shue, Journal of Finance, forthcoming 2024.
“Variance Risk Premiums in Emerging Markets,” with Fang Qiao, Lai Xu, and Xiaoyan Zhang, Journal of Banking and Finance, forthcoming 2024.
“The Great Wall of Debt: Real Estate, Political Risk, and Chinese Local Government Financing Cost,” with Andrew Ang and Jennie Bai, Journal of Finance and Data Science, forthcoming 2024.
“Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks,” with Olesya Grishchenko and Zhaogang Song, Journal of Finance and Data Science, vol. 8, pages 255- 295, 2022.
“Does Fiscal Policy Matter for Stock-Bond Return Correlation? ” with Erica X.N. Li, Tao A. Zha, and Ji Zhang, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 128, pages 20-34, 2022.
“Moment Risk Premia and Stock Return Predictability,” with Zhenzhen Fan and Xiao Xiao, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 57, pages 67-93, 2022.
“Specification Analysis of Structural Credit Risk Models,” with Jingzhi Huang and Zhan Shi, Review of Finance, vol. 24, page 45-98, 2020.
“ Short-Run Bond Risk Premia,” with Philippe Mueller and Andrea Vedolin, Quarterly Journal of Finance, vol. 9, pages 1950011:1-34, 2019.
“Ambiguity Aversion and Variance Premium,” with Jianjun Miao and Bin Wei, Quarterly Journal of Finance, vol. 9, pages 1950003:1-36, 2019.
“Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty,” Annual Review of Financial Economics, vol. 10, pages 481-497, 2018.
“Hot Money and Quantitative Easing: The Spillover Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy on the Chinese Economy,” with Steven Wei Ho and Ji Zhang, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 50, pages 1543-1569, 2018.
“Do Behavioral Biases Affect Order Aggressiveness?” with Jiangze Bian, Kalok Chan, and Donghui Shi, Review of Finance, vol. 22, pages 1121-1151, 2018.
“Variance Risk Premiums and the Forward Premium Puzzles,” with Juan M. Londono, Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 124, pages 415–440, 2017.
“Effect of Liquidity on the Nondefault Component of Corporate Bond Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data,” with Song Han, Quarterly Journal of Finance, vol. 6, pages 1650012:1-49, 2016.
“Risk, Uncertainty, and Expected Returns,” with Turan Bali, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis-lead article, vol. 31, pages 707-735, 2016.
“The Systemic Risk of European Banks during the Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises,” with Lamont Black, Ricardo Correa, and Xin Huang, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 63, pages 107-125, 2016.
“Stock Return and Cash Flow Predictability: the Role of Volatility Risk,” with Tim Bollerslev and Lai Xu, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 187, pages 458-471, 2015.
“Predicting Stock Returns with Variance Risk Premia: Statistical Inference and International Evidence,” with Tim Bollerslev, James Marrone, and Lai Xu, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 49, pages 633-661, 2014.
“Credit Default Swap Spreads and Variance Risk Premia,” with Hao Wang and Yi Zhou, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 37, pages 3733-3746, 2013.
“Assessing the Systemic Risk of a Heterogeneous Portfolio of Banks during the Recent Financial Crisis,” with Xin Huang and Haibin Zhu, Journal of Financial Stability, vol. 8, pages 193-205, 2012.
“Systemic Risk Contributions,” with Xin Huang and Haibin Zhu, Journal of Financial Services Research, vol. 42, pages 55-83, 2012.
“Realized Jumps on Financial Markets and Predicting Credit Spreads,” with George Tauchen, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 160, pages 235-245, 2011.
“Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option- Implied and Realized Volatilities,” with Tim Bollerslev and Mike Gibson, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 160, pages 102-118, 2011.
“Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms,” with Ben Zhang and Haibin Zhu, Review of Financial Studies, vol. 22, pages 5099-5131, 2009.
“Bond Risk Premia and Realized Jump Risk,” with Jonathan Wright, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 33, pages 2333-2345, 2009.
“A Framework for Assessing the Systemic Risk of Major Financial Institutions,” with Xin Huang and Haibin Zhu, Journal of Banking and Finance, vol. 33, pages 2036-2049, 2009.
“Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia,” with Tim Bollerslev and George Tauchen, Review of Financial Studies, vol. 22, pages 4463-4492, 2009.
“Volatility Puzzles: A Simple Framework for Gauging Return-Volatility Regressions,” with Tim Bollerslev, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 131, pages 123-150, 2006.
“Regime-Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle,” with Ravi Bansal and George Tauchen, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 22, pages 396-409, 2004.
“Ito Conditional Moment Generator and the Estimation of Short Rate Processes,” Journal of Financial Econometrics, vol. 1, pages 250-271, 2003.
“Estimating Stochastic Volatility Diffusion Using Conditional Moments of Integrated Volatility,” with Tim Bollerslev, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 109, pages 33-65, 2002.
“Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts,” with Ravi Bansal, Journal of Finance, vol. 57, pages 1997-2043, 2002.
“Finite Sample Properties of EMM, GMM, QMLE, and MLE for a Square-Root Interest Rate Diffusion Model,” Journal of Computational Finance, vol. 2, pages 89-122, 2001.
“Rural-Urban Disparity and Sectoral Labor Allocation in China,” with Dennis Tao Yang, Journal of Development Studies, vol. 35, pages 105-133, 1999.
Nonrefereed Publication
“Research Frontiers of the Chinese Financial Markets,” Special Issue Guest Editorial for Journal of Finance and Data Science on FinTech Research and the Chinese Financial Market, 100116, 2024.
“Comment - Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy,” by Gianni De Nicolò, Marcella Lucchetta, NBER Book Quantifying Systemic Risk, Joseph G. Haubrich and Andrew W. Lo editors, 2013.
“Comment - Numerical Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous- Time Diffusion Processes,” by Garland B. Durham and A. Ronald Gallant, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 20, pages 332-335, 2002.
Chinese Journal
“Mixed Ownership Reform and SOE Performance Improvement—Further Analysis Based- on Alternative Definitions and PSM, DID, IV Methods” 混合所有制改革与国有企业绩效 提升—基于定义矫正和 PSM 、DID 、IV 法的再透视, with Guanping Zhou and Hao Wang, Economist 经济学家, vol. 1, pages 80-90, 2021.
Book Publication
Macroeconomy and Policy in China,Speech at Hong Kong Leaders of the Year, 2004.
The U.S. Economic Prospects and Monetary Policy in 2024,Tsinghua Financial Review, 2023.
New Structural Financial Economics and Modernization with Chinese Characteristics,Shenzhen Chinese Communist Party School, 2023.
China Growth Challenges, Stimulus Policy Debates, and Long-Term Strucural Remedies, Shenzhen TV Station and Shenzhen University School ofFintech Research, 2023.
SVB Moment,China Finance 40 Forum, 2023.
China's Monetary Policy—Short-term Optimality, Mid-term Effectiveness, and Long-term Nonneutrality,Tsinghua Financial Review, 2023.
China's Monetary Policy—Short-term Optimality, Mid-term Effectiveness, and Long-term Nonneutrality,Shanghai Development Research Fund, 2022.
The Paradigm Shift of Fed Interest-Rate Rule, International Asset Reallocation, and China's Macro Policy Response,4Reasons Executive Education, 2022.
The Positive Role of Finance in Stablizing Supply Chain Disruptions,Tsinghua Financial Review, 2022.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike and Its Impact on the Chinese Economy, Shanghai Development Research Fund, 2022.
Fed Monetary Policy Exectation and Its Impact on the Chinese Economy,Global Asset Management Forum, 2022.
Financial Stability Legislation and Bailout Funds, China Finance 40 Forum, 2022.
The Top Choice of International Asset Allocation is RMB, Taikang Longevity Summit Forum in Shenzhen, 2021.
2021 Semi-Annual Report of China's Systemic Financial Risk,Tsinghua Financial Review, 2021.
Deepening Reform and Openning-Up - Dual Circulation Development Pattern, Tsinghua Financial Review, 2021.
New Structural Financial Economics, Excellent Graduate Course (only one of the two), SUSTech, 2024.
New Structural Financial Economics, Research Grant, SUSTech, 2024.
2023 Elsevier Highly Cited Chinese Researchers—Applied Economics, 2024.
2022 Elsevier Highly Cited Chinese Researchers—Applied Economics, 2023.
Journal of Finance and Data Science the Outstanding Paper in Fixed-Income Award 2022 for “Term Structure of Interest Rates with Short-Run and Long-Run Risks,” with Olesya Grishchenko and Zhaogang Song, 2023.
2021 Elsevier Highly Cited Chinese Researchers—Applied Economics, 2022.
Shenzhen Peacock Plan – A Class (鹏城孔雀计划 A 类), Shenzhen, 2021.
Committee Chair of Economics, Finance, and Management, Thousands Talent Program, 2017.
Conference and Seminar (coauthor c discussion d)
2024: Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Beijing Foreign Studies University, Beijing Institute of Technology, SWUFE Institute of Financial Studies, NBER Chinese Economy Meeting in Shenyangd.
2023: Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, Tsinghua PBC School of Financec, PKU-HSBC Business School in Shenzhenc, 1st Annual Conference on China and the Global Economy at HKU Business School, SWUFE Institute of Financial Studies, Melbourne Asset Pricing
Meetingc, 7th Annual Bank of Canada and University of Toronto Conference on the Chinese Economy, Cheung Kong GSB in Beijing, Beijing Foreign Studies University.
2022: AEA (poster session), Tsinghua PBC School of Financec, JIMF Conference at SUFE College of Business, PKU-HSBC Business School in Shenzhen, Cheung Kong GSB in Beijing, Fanhai International School of Finance in Shanghai.
2021: Virtual Municipal Finance Workshopc, CUHK-Shenzhen-SME, SWUFE International Macro-Finance Conference in Chengduc, China Financial Research Conference in Beijingc, China International Conference in Finance in Shanghaic (2 papers).
Conference Organization (lead organizer/program chair/co-chair)
ABFER-JFDS Conference on AI and FinTech, by CKGSB, HKUST, PBCSF, and SUSTech, August 2024, Shenzhen
Research Conference on Capital Market in the Era of AI, by HKUST Business School, ABFER, and SUSTech Business School, November 2023, Hong Kong
Journal of Finance and Data Science Conference on Fintech Research and Chinese Financial Market, August 2023, Beijing
China International Conference in Macroeconomics, 2018, Beijing, China; 2019, Shenzhen, China; 2021, Beijing, China; 2022, Shenzhen, China
China Financial Research Conference, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, Beijing, China
Summer Institute of Finance, July 2016, Shanghai, China
Annual Bank of Canada – Tsinghua PBCSF – University of Toronto Conference on the Chinese Economy, 2018, Beijing, China, 2019, Toronto, Canada; 2021, Virtual Online
Reforms and Liberalization of China’s Capital Market Conference, September 2018, Beijing, China
Tsinghua-St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank Joint Conference on Monetary Policy and Financial Stability, May 2016, May 2017, Beijing, China
China International Conference in Finance, July 2014, Chengdu, China
Sixth Annual Risk Management Conference – Risk Management Responses to Rising Systematic and Systemic Risks, July 2012, National University of Singapore
Basel Committee of Banking Supervision Research Task Force Conference on Stress Testing of Credit Risk Portfolio: The Link between Macro and Micro, March 2008, Amsterdam
Federal Reserve Conference on Credit Risk and Credit Derivatives, March 2007, Washington DC
Federal Reserve Conference on Financial Market Risk Premiums – Time Variations and Macroeconomic Links, July 2005, Washington DC
Academic Placement
Jing Zhao (PhD 2023): Associate, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland
Bingyan Gu (PhD 2023): Economist, People’s Bank of China (PBoC)
Yuting Yang (PhD 2022): Economist, Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong
Keqi Chen (PhD 2021): Economist, People’s Bank of China (PBoC)
Haorui Bai (PhD 2021): Analyst, Anxin Securities in Beijing
Guanping Zhou (PhD 2020): Economist, China Development and Reform Commission (CDRC)
Wenliang Guo (PhD 2020): Analyst, China Merchants Group (CMG) in Shenzhen
Xiaoyang Zhuo (Post Doctor 2019): Associate Professor, School of Economics at Beijing Institute of Technology
Fang Qiao (Post Doctor 2019): Assistant Professor, School of Finance, School of Finance, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) in Beijing
Zhuang Liu (Post Doctor 2019): Subsidiary CEO, China National Machinery Industry Corporation Ltd (SINOMACH)
Xiaoyu Huang (PhD 2018): Assistant Professor, School of Finance, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) in Beijing
Xiangpeng Chen (PhD 2018): Economist, China Security Regulatory Commission (CSRC)
Nan Sha (PhD 2016 and Post Doctor 2018): Research Fellow, National Institute of Financial Research, PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University
Lai Xu (PhD 2014): Assistant Professor, Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University
Professional Membership
Editorial Service
Journal Referee
American Economic Review, American Economic Review: Insights, Econometrica, Economic Theory, European Financial Management, International Journal of Central Banking, Finance Research Letters, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Credit Risk, Journal of Econometrics, Journal of Economic and Dynamic Control, Journal of Empirical Finance, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Journal of Financial Markets, Journal of Financial Stability, Journal of Futures Markets, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Management Science, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Review of Financial Studies.